But then he factored in . He looked at Miller’s betting patterns over the last four hours. Miller was "over-bluffing" on wet boards. If Elias factored in the 15% chance that his Ace-high was already the best hand, his total win probability climbed to 34%. "I call," Elias said, sliding the chips forward.
"Your move, Professor," growled Miller, a regular who played by "feel" and lost by the same metric. Elias glanced at the board: . He held A♠ K♠ . Mathematics of Poker
The table gasped at the rarity—a 1-in-30,000-to-1 longshot. Miller slammed his fist on the table, cursing Elias’s "dumb luck." But then he factored in
"I am," Elias replied calmly. "But you're giving me a discount on the variance." The dealer burned a card and turned the river: . The Royal Flush. If Elias factored in the 15% chance that